← Mortal Ambition Canadian Regionals - Forest City Coins
Water AlliesTier 2
at Mortal Ambition Canadian Regionals - Forest City Coins
decks
2
(3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
7-3-2
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.8%
avg ELO +3.3 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1223
· median 1223
· range 1162–1284
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
937
Q1 1149
Q3 1353
1576
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 15.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -3.1 |
| Wind Allies | 15.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | -7.1 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
